Bet with confidence every morning.
Without chasing hunches, overthinking picks, or second-guessing yourself.
Confident Picks delivers predictive-model betting odds every morning for pro baseball leagues — so you can find the best Over/Under opportunities fast.
Why I Built Confident Picks
I’ve spent over a decade building predictive models — first for fantasy sports, then for betting. I built strong models that performed well, but even with an edge the results were inconsistent. The volatility of moneyline betting made it hard to stay profitable long-term.
The Problem with Moneyline
Winning predictions didn’t always mean winning money
(ex. a team with a 65% predicted chance of winning was rarely priced at 1.54 / -186)Small edges didn’t translate into reliable returns
Even strong picks felt like a gamble
The Shift to Over/Unders
I needed a way to reduce variance and increase control, and that’s when I turned to Totals:
Adjustable risk with more control (ex. betting 7.5 Over is safer than 8.5 Over)
Smoother results and fewer wild swings
A method I could scale across leagues, sports, and seasons
What My Betting Looks Like Now
Now, my daily betting routine is simple and consistent:
Check the model once per day
Bet only when the prediction is strong
Avoid emotional traps and second-guessing
I created Confident Picks to give other bettors that same structure — a way to make informed decisions backed by data, not vibes. With over 43,000 MLB games powering the system (and more leagues being added) so you can start betting smarter, with clarity and confidence.
WHAT YOU GET
DAILY
O/U Predictions & Top Picks
Each day, you’ll receive high-confidence Over/Under predictions based on real-time trends, performance metrics, and variability patterns.
COVERAGE
More Leagues, More Action
Your membership includes daily updates for MLB and other pro baseball totals markets. NHL and NBA leagues will be launched in the fall.
Current predictions include:
MLB Total Runs
MLB Total Hits + Runs + Errors
MLB No Runs First Inning
AAA Minor Baseball (IL) Total Runs
NPB: Japan Pro Baseball Total Runs
KBO: Korea Pro Baseball Total Runs
POWER
A More Advanced Model
Predictions using an engine that is stronger, deeper, and smarter.
For example, the MLB models:
are trained on over 43,000 games
account for variables like projected starting pitchers, stadium effects, and weather (e.g. temperature, windspeed, wind direction, barometric pressure)
What you get each day
Each morning you’ll see model predictions for every game, complete with confidence ratings and league coverage in one simple view. Here’s an sample of what you’d see on in the membership section:
How the Model Performs
When people ask, “what are the results?” the real answer is: the model helps identify spots where the numbers lean in your favor — but like all betting, it’s not perfect.
Here’s how it works in practice:
Not all lines are equal. Totals set near the league average (around 8–9 runs in MLB) are the hardest to predict. Lines farther from the average (like 6.5 or 9.5) tend to be more consistent.
Model Odds = confidence signal. Each pick includes a Model % rating — the higher the percentage, the stronger the prediction.
Context still matters. If the gap between the model and the sportsbook is too wide (say 85% vs 55%), it often means the sportsbook is factoring in new information that the model isn’t (for example, last-minute injuries or pitcher changes). That’s where bettor judgment comes in.
For MLB Total Runs this season, I’ve personally placed 133 bets where the Model % was above 75%. Those plays hit 66.9%, compared to the sportsbook’s implied 63.9% win rate. That difference — a few percentage points — is the kind of edge that adds up over time.
Confident Picks isn’t about perfection. It’s about giving you a clearer, more disciplined starting point — so you can make smarter choices, and avoid guessing.
BUILT FOR BETTORS WHO WANT AN EDGE
This membership is for people who:
Bet on totals and want a smarter edge
Want to feel prepared, not rushed, before placing a bet
Don’t have time to build a model every day (or at all)
Prefer a no-fluff, no-guru, numbers-first approach
Want a repeatable system they can count on all season
Whether you're new to data or just tired of the noise, this gives you a clean, confident way to bet every day.
COMMON QUESTIONS
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Baseball:
MLB Total Runs
MLB Total Hits + Runs + Errors
MLB No Runs First Inning
International League (MiLB) AAA Minor Baseball Total Runs
Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) Total Runs
Korea Professional Baseball (KBO) Total Runs
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Over/Unders — the most consistently beatable market for everyday bettors.
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Nope. Just open the picks, review the insights, and place your bets with confidence.
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Yes. This is an educational and informational product, not a gambling site or sportsbook. You’re responsible for your own bets.